NRF FORECASTS RETAIL INDUSTRY SALES GROWTH OF 3.4% IN 2012

Though stubbornly high unemployment and continued uncertainty over the prospects for job growth will continue to dampen the outlook for industry retail sales growth in 2012, the retail industry will still grow at a rate faster than many other industries. This year, retail industry sales will rise 3.4% to $2.53 trillion*, according to the National Retail Federation – slightly lower than the pace of 2011, in which sales grew 4.7%. Many economists estimate that real U.S. GDP will rise approximately 2.1 to 2.4%.

“Over the last 18 months, retailers have been on the forefront of the economic recovery – creating jobs, encouraging consumer spending, and investing in America,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Our 2012 forecast is a vote of confidence in the retail industry and our ability to succeed even in a challenging economy. Retailers have played a key role in driving growth, but to continue this momentum we need Washington to act on proposals that will spur job creation and unleash the power of the private sector.”

Shay will announce NRF’s forecast to 24,000 retailers and their partners at NRF’s 101st Annual Convention and Expo today in New York. During his remarks, Shay will discuss how continued growth in the retail industry will result in additional jobs, greater innovation and increased consumer value. But he will warn that the private sector can’t do it alone and Washington must take steps to support growth, including reforming our corporate tax system to enhance U.S. business’ competitiveness, enacting sales tax fairness to level the playing field between brick-and-mortar and online retailers, and reforming our visa system so more foreign travelers can come to the U.S. to spend money and help spur growth. Shay and NRF’s Chairman – Chairman, President and CEO of Macy’s, Inc., Terry Lundgren – outlined the industry’s priorities in a letter to President Obama last week.

Though retailers ended last year on a strong note with holiday sales rising 4.1% over 2010, many factors will continue to influence the expected slowdown in consumer spending, but none remain more cumbersome than the stalled unemployment rate and lack of newly-created jobs.